Summary
Researchers used an integrated modeling approach to assess climate-related risks to national aquatic food systems. They reviewed literature, identified climate impact pathways, and selected indicators for hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Fuzzy logic modeling was employed to compute climate risks for different food system outcomes and to identify distinct risk profiles for countries across different climate change scenarios.
The results revealed that under a high-emissions scenario, both marine and freshwater capture fisheries face severe climate hazards by mid-century, with some regions, such as tropical Africa and the Middle East, experiencing ‘very high’ risks. Rigorous climate mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement can lower hazards to ‘medium’ or ‘low’ levels. Despite this, vulnerable tropical developing countries face heightened climate risks, jeopardizing nutrition, health, and economic outcomes. One limitation noted by the authors is the model did not take into account how other food systems will be affected by climate change, which may in turn result in feedback loops and trade-offs for aquatic foods systems. Some strengths lie in the study’s holistic approach, combining literature review, global hazard assessment, and fuzzy logic modeling to offer a nuanced understanding of global climate risks to aquatic food systems.
Cannot be posted