Summary
This 2023 study used a hierarchical optimization approach to identify which protected areas containing endangered species need to be spatially reconfigured in order to protect them from climate change risk, land use change risk, and risk from weak governance. The study found increasing the area of protected land by 1.6% can reduce the vulnerability of the areas if risks related to these factors are considered during the planning stage. A strength of the study was that the authors used highly reputable sources for finding their datasets, including the ICUN Red List and Birdlife International. A limitation of this study is that there are other factors that need to be considered when evaluating an area’s vulnerability outside of climate change, land use and governance (including technological advancements and environmental contamination). An implication of the study suggested by the authors is the model can be used to inform conservation efforts, even though this was not the primary intention of the study. Another implication suggested by the authors is that countries which host a large population of species should develop governance frameworks to coordinate their conservation efforts.
Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning.